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May 13, 2025
[Market Musings] Trading Truce: From Tariff Tensions to Teasing Détente
By
Kristal Advisors
(April 28 - May 2, 2025)
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Neither too hot, nor too cold – but for how long?
Wall Street closed the week with a sigh of relief as the S&P 500 delivered its sixth consecutive day of gains – the longest winning streak since March 2022. The remarkable recovery comes despite a whirlwind of conflicting economic signals, leaving investors to solve what might be called the Goldilocks riddle: can the economy remain neither too hot nor too cold, even as geopolitical tensions simmer?
At the heart of this market resilience lies a growing disconnect between "hard" and "soft" data. While sentiment-based indicators point to mounting anxiety over tariffs and trade tensions, employment figures and consumer spending have remained surprisingly robust. Friday's nonfarm payrolls report showed 177,000 jobs added in April, handily beating expectations of 130,000 and maintaining the unemployment rate at a steady 4.2%.
This strength in jobs data pushed both Goldman Sachs and Barclays to recalibrate their rate cut expectations, pushing their first cut calls from June to July. The bond market concurred, with the yield curve bear flattening as traders recalibrated short-term rate expectations. Yet even with this hawkish repricing, equities powered higher – suggesting investors increasingly view these employment figures as evidence of economic resilience rather than a barrier to monetary easing.
The remarkable market rebound came amid reports that Beijing is considering a fentanyl offer to the US to start trade talks, potentially creating a pathway toward de-escalation. Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Lutnick tantalized markets with comments that one trade deal is already completed, awaiting only final approval from the unnamed country's leadership.
For investors grappling with President Trump's tumultuous first hundred days – which has seen an 8% decline in the S&P 500, the worst "first hundred days" performance since Nixon's 1973 term – the prospect of trade war resolution has transformed market sentiment. Treasury Secretary Bessent's skillful messaging provided further reassurance, suggesting that while escalation tools remain "in his back pocket," he's "anxious not to use them."
But perhaps most telling was the market's muted reaction to the negative Q1 GDP print of -0.3%. Investors largely dismissed this contraction as a byproduct of inventory front-loading ahead of tariff implementation rather than a genuine economic slowdown. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has since been revised downward for Q2 to 1.1% from 2.4%, yet markets seem unperturbed.
As earnings season hits its stride, big tech continues to divide the market between winners and losers. Microsoft and Meta delivered stellar results that reassured investors about AI spending and data center demand, while Apple and Amazon's more cautious guidance left investors questioning the potential impact of tariffs on their global supply chains. With Apple specifically quantifying a $900 million tariff impact for the current quarter, the market now has tangible figures to assess the trade war's corporate toll.
For patient investors who maintained discipline through April's volatility, the reward has been a historic rebound. The market's resilience in the face of extraordinary uncertainty suggests either remarkable adaptability or dangerous complacency. The Goldilocks riddle remains unsolved, but for now, the market has placed its bet that our economic porridge will remain just right.
Microsoft's exceptional quarter showcased Nadella's prescient AI investments beginning to deliver tangible returns. Azure growth accelerated to 33% (beating 29% expectations), with AI services adding a full 16 percentage points – clear evidence of monetization taking hold. The company deftly balanced AI enthusiasm with core business execution, reversing recent quarters' tendency to neglect non-AI services.
The AI ecosystem's virtuous cycle is emerging: GitHub Copilot users quadrupled YoY, Copilot for Microsoft 365 reached "hundreds of thousands" of customers with 200% growth, and customers created one million custom agents (up 130% QoQ). More impressively, AI infrastructure efficiency improvements delivered 30% performance gains and 50% cost-per-token reductions.
With Azure growth forecasted to accelerate further to 34.5% next quarter, Microsoft appears to be escaping the narrow "AI is expensive without clear ROI" narrative plaguing competitors. The company's data-to-AI integration strategy – exemplified by PostgreSQL and CosmosDB acceleration, Fabric gaining 2,000 new customers, and the multi-cloud data lake growing 500% yearly – suggests Microsoft isn't merely selling promising technology but delivering measurable productivity improvements.
Apple's quarter revealed a company methodically responding to geopolitical pressures while maintaining its formidable market position. Despite 5.1% YoY revenue growth and iPhone leading market share in urban China, guidance reflected newfound caution, quantifying an unprecedented $900 million quarterly tariff impact. This transparency, previously anathema to Apple's secretive culture, signals the seriousness with which Cook views the shifting trade landscape.
The company's supply chain reconfiguration represents perhaps its most significant strategic pivot since iPhone's launch. Plans to source most US-bound iPhones from India by 2026, shift 50%+ of other hardware to Vietnam, and invest $500 billion in American manufacturing amount to a fundamental rethinking of Apple's Chinese manufacturing dependency. Yet questions persist whether this geographic diversification can match China's unparalleled manufacturing efficiency.
For investors, the $100 billion buyback program (about 3% of market cap) offers near-term support, but longer-term concerns about innovation remain. Apple's AI announcements appeared iterative rather than revolutionary, creating an uncomfortably apt metaphor in the "more personal Siri features" that remain "significantly delayed" yet "still on the way." With a tepid 3-year revenue CAGR, Apple increasingly resembles a financial engineering masterclass rather than the innovation engine of yesteryear.
Meta delivered a quarter that showcased Zuckerberg's evolving conglomerate strategy, with revenue beating estimates by 2.4% despite Chinese exporters reducing ad spend ahead of de minimis exemption changes. The company's social platforms maintain remarkable engagement momentum, with time spent on Facebook, Instagram, and Threads growing 7%, 6%, and 35% YoY respectively – defying perpetual "peak social" proclamations.
Ray-Ban smart glasses have emerged as Meta's hardware success story after years of costly VR experimentation. Sales tripled YoY with monthly active users quadrupling, suggesting Meta may have found the right form factor for mainstream adoption. Meanwhile, Threads has quietly reached 350 million monthly active users while beginning to monetize through increased ad load.
Meta's increased capital expenditure – now $68 billion, up from $62.5 billion – signals confidence in both AI infrastructure needs and advertising tailwinds. Unlike peers hesitating amid tariff uncertainty, Meta's bold investment stance reflects Zuckerberg's conviction that economic turmoil historically favors platforms with superior targeting capabilities. With multiple growth vectors across social media, hardware, and AI, Meta appears uniquely positioned to weather macroeconomic volatility.
Spotify's quarterly results revealed a company methodically transforming from growth-at-all-costs to sustainable profitability. Revenue narrowly missed estimates by 0.3%, but gross margins held steady at 31.6% despite currency headwinds, reflecting Premium ARPU stabilization and content cost discipline. The continued margin expansion, coupled with 9.5% free cash flow outperformance, suggests Ek's operating leverage model is materializing.
The streaming giant's metrics show healthy ecosystem vitality: monthly active users reached 615 million (up 19% YoY) while premium subscribers grew by 14% to 239 million, both matching or exceeding guidance. More impressively, this growth occurred without meaningful ad load increases or significant content investments, indicative of durable network effects.
Nevertheless, Q2 revenue guidance missed estimates by 1.6%, reflecting the balancing act between growth and profitability. Investors are betting Spotify's considerable fixed cost structure will deliver exponential margin improvement as the user base expands. The company's nearly €8 billion cash position provides ample runway to weather near-term economic uncertainty while maintaining strategic flexibility for podcast and audiobook expansion.
Adyen's first-quarter update revealed the awkward adolescence of a former fintech darling. Revenue growth of 22% YoY would delight most businesses but represents an inflection point for a company. Behind the headline numbers lies an increasingly challenging "wallet share expansion" story – the company's long-standing strategy of extracting more volume from existing enterprise customers.
The structural trade-offs of success are becoming apparent: digital net revenue grew just 13% YoY while volumes rose 20% YoY, suggesting lower take rates accompany larger volumes. More concerning is the eBay situation, where platform volumes grew 23% YoY– implying significant volume migration away from what was once a flagship win to direct integrations that bypass Adyen altogether.
Management maintains its "low-twenties to high-twenties" revenue growth target through 2026, but investor skepticism is mounting. Adyen's embedded finance ambitions remain immaterial after years of development, while the growing need to exclude specific large customers to showcase growth suggests the runway for wallet share expansion may be shortening. When a payments company needs special exclusions to demonstrate growth, investors should pay attention to what those exclusions reveal.
Visa's modest quarterly outperformance – revenue beating estimates by just 0.5% – belies the broader story of payment network resilience amid geopolitical turbulence. Volume growth moderated to 5% YoY versus 7% last quarter, yet CEO McInerney emphasized stability in consumer spending across all demographic segments despite tariff uncertainty and weakening sentiment indicators.
The company's post-quarter data through April 21st showed growth accelerating sequentially, benefiting from favorable Easter and Ramadan timing. This upward trend, coupled with maintained annual guidance of 10-12% revenue growth, suggests Visa's management sees the current slowdown as temporary rather than structural – a confidence not shared by competitors more directly exposed to Chinese cross-border flows.
Visa's share count reduction of 3.2% YoY reinforces its defensive characteristics in uncertain markets. Consensus expectation is of 17% EPS growth this year moderating to 11% next year, Visa offers a compelling blend of modest growth with demonstrated ability to weather economic crosscurrents – particularly valuable when consumer health indicators diverge from sentiment surveys.
Mastercard's quarterly performance – revenue growth of 10.9% exceeding "low double-digit" guidance – confirms the company's enviable position at the premium end of consumer spending. Cross-border volume growth accelerated from 15% in Q1 to 17% quarter-to-date, while switched transactions growth improved from 9% to 11%, reflecting stability in high-end travel and luxury spending despite deteriorating consumer sentiment.
The company's raised annual growth guidance – from 10-12% to 13-14% – stands in contrast to most businesses adopting more cautious stances amid trade uncertainties. This confidence stems partly from Mastercard's skew toward more affluent consumers, who CFO Mehra noted are "growing the fastest" among spending bands. The company's services beyond pure payment processing – now representing over one-third of revenue – provide further insulation from commoditization pressures.
With consensus expectations for 10% growth this year accelerating to 17% next year, Mastercard commands a premium that reflects its structural advantages in an increasingly fragmented payments landscape. Unlike newer fintech challengers facing margin compression, Mastercard's network effects and brand power allow it to maintain pricing power while gradually expanding its value proposition beyond the transaction moment.
Disclaimer: This musing is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.
By
Kristal Advisors
April 29, 2025
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May 13, 2025
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We are licensed in Singapore, Hong Kong and India. Kristal Advisors (SG) Pte. Ltd. presently operates under the CMS license by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Kristal Advisors (HK) Ltd is licensed and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to carry out Type 4 and Type 9 regulated activities and is not involved in the discretionary management of any collective investment scheme. Kristal Advisors Private Ltd. presently operates as a Registered Investment Advisor under the jurisdiction of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI).
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WE ARE LICENSED IN SINGAPORE, HONG KONG, ABU DHABI, AND INDIA. KRISTAL ADVISORS (SG) PTE. LTD. PRESENTLY OPERATES UNDER THE CMS LICENSE BY THE MONETARY AUTHORITY OF SINGAPORE (MAS). KRISTAL ADVISORS (HK) LTD IS LICENSED AND REGULATED BY THE SECURITIES AND FUTURES COMMISSION (SFC) TO CARRY OUT TYPE 4 AND TYPE 9 REGULATED ACTIVITIES AND IS NOT INVOLVED IN THE DISCRETIONARY MANAGEMENT OF ANY COLLECTIVE INVESTMENT SCHEME. KRISTAL ADVISORS PRIVATE LTD. PRESENTLY OPERATES AS A REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR UNDER THE JURISDICTION OF THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (SEBI). KRISTAL.AI MIDDLE EAST LIMITED IS LICENSED AND REGULATED BY THE FINANCIAL SERVICES REGULATORY AUTHORITY (FSRA) FOR CAT 3 A LICENSE.
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